Here's a quick look at the projected standings:
NWE 13-3, MIA 8-8, BUF 8-8, NYJ 7-9
PIT 12-4, CIN 9-7, BAL 9-7, CLE 5-11
IND 12-4, TEN 10-6, JAC 8-8, HOU 8-8
SDG 12-4, KAN 5-11, DEN 3-13, OAK 3-13
WAS 11-5, DAL 10-6, PHI 9-7, NYG 8-8
MIN 10-6, CHI 9-7, GNB 6-10, DET 2-14
TAM 9-7, NOR 9-7, CAR 7-9, ATL 5-11
ARI 8-8, SFO 8-8, SEA 7-9, STL 6-10
The playoffs would look like this:
AFC: 1. NWE 2. SDG 3. PIT 4. IND 5. TEN 6. CIN
NFC: 1. WAS 2. MIN 3. TAM 4. ARI 5. DAL 6. NOR
So my official super bowl pick is:
Patriots over Redskins.
Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
NFL 2009 Preview - AFC West
Denver Broncos
Last Year: 8-8
Kyle Orton was bad in Chicago, and it will be interesting to see how he does in Josh McDaniel's new system, surrounded by superior talent. The bad news is that Brandon Marshall wants a trade and is doing everything wrong this offseason. He's got obvious talent but it may not ever work out in Denver. Eddie Royal is a solid shifty underneath WR2, but if Marshall isn't out there he'll be asked to be the #1 WR. The Broncos have too-old Brandon Stokley listed as the other starter if Marshall is out. TE Tony Scheffler is quietly a very good pass-catcher. A sleeper option might be Brandon Lloyd. He looked better than he had in a while last year in Chicago, but missed a lot of time due to injury.
The Broncos have traditionally used zone-blocking, and I'm not sure how much McDaniels will use that this year. If they don't, I'd expect the running game to be less efficient. Correll Buckhalter, Knowshon Moreno, Lamont Jordan, and Peyton Hillis all in the mix in the backfield. McDaniels used lots of backs in New England and might here too.
The defense was terrible last year and should be again this year. The transition from 4-3 to 3-4 will take time, and the secondary is laughably old.
There's a sense of impending doom here, and for this season, the sky really is falling. Still, coaches deserve time to build their team, so I'll try not to judge McDaniels after what is certainly a rebuilding year.
2009 Projected Record: 3-13
Kansas City Chiefs
Last Year: 2-14.
The Chiefs have added career backup Matt Cassel as their starting QB. Cassel got to play last year when Tom Brady went down, and developed throughout the year. He was playing pretty well towards the end of the year, but now he'll have a much less impressive supporting cast. Dwayne Bowe has averaged 1000 yards/season in his first two, but can he take the next step into stardom? Don't look for the answer from me, I'm torn and waiting to see. They lost Tony Gonzalez, so Cassel's other options will be a yikes! list of Mark Bradley, Terrance Copper, Devard Darling, Bobby Engram, and Sean Ryan.
Haley is used to passing a lot in Arizona, but then again he had Fitzgerald, Boldin, Warner, and a horrible run-blocking O-line. He's still stuck with terrible run-blocking, but he might run a bit more considering the drop-off in the passing game. Larry Johnson is a decent runner and Jamaal Charles provides a great change of pace.
A lot like Denver, the Chiefs defense is changing schemes and has a lot of ancient players. It will continue to be bad.
Matt Cassel provides just a glimmer of hope that the team might win enough games to count on both hands. They might, but I'll stick with 5.
2009 Projected Record: 5-11
Oakland Raiders
Last Year: 5-11
Jamarcus Russell will probably never be a good NFL QB. Sure, the O-line stunk and the receivers stunk, but so did the QB play. Jeff Garcia is 39 but could be a better option. The receivers aren't any better this year, either. Darius Heyward-Bay, Chaz Schillens, Javon Walker, Johnnie Lee Higgins. TE Zach Miller was a pleasant surprise, and might be the team's best receiver again this year.
Darren McFadden still looks like a star, just a star surrounded by jokes. Justin Fargas will get the ball less with Darren healthy, but is still a solid #2. Michael Bush is there in case the Raiders need a stronger power option.
Defensively, the Raiders have been terrible against the run and decent against the pass. Asomugha shuts down half the field, but still only decent against the pass. This year they could be worse because a lot of the key players are getting old.
This team needs new management.
2009 Projected Record: 3-13
San Diego Chargers
Last Year: 8-8
What a breakout year for Philip Rivers, who was the most efficient QB in the league last season. He'll almost certainly regress from his 8.0 adjusted net yards per passing play, but is still a very good QB. Likewise, Vincent Jackson had a career year that probably won't be matched. Chris Chambers is the 3rd option on this team, and at this point in his career you know what you're getting from him. (not much). Antonio Gates is an elite tight end who struggled with injury last year.
On the ground, starter LaDainian Tomlinson is on the downside of his great career and should give up a few more carries to shorty sensation Darren Sproles.
Adding Merriman and English to last year's defense should be a huge boost. Igor Olshanky was solid and is gone, but overall the front 7 will be better. Cromartie struggled last year but had a fractured hip. The defense should return to the league's elite.
2009 Projected Record: 12-4, AFC West Champs
Current Division Future Odds:
(Disclaimer: I don't bet futures or suggest you tie up money for that long)
931 San Diego Chargers -450
932 Any Other +350
9/10/2009 7:30 PM Odds to win the 2009 AFC West without SD Chargers
933 Denver Broncos +125
934 Kansas City Chiefs +185
935 Oakland Raiders +205
100 Turnips on the Chargers, even at that price.
Last Year: 8-8
Kyle Orton was bad in Chicago, and it will be interesting to see how he does in Josh McDaniel's new system, surrounded by superior talent. The bad news is that Brandon Marshall wants a trade and is doing everything wrong this offseason. He's got obvious talent but it may not ever work out in Denver. Eddie Royal is a solid shifty underneath WR2, but if Marshall isn't out there he'll be asked to be the #1 WR. The Broncos have too-old Brandon Stokley listed as the other starter if Marshall is out. TE Tony Scheffler is quietly a very good pass-catcher. A sleeper option might be Brandon Lloyd. He looked better than he had in a while last year in Chicago, but missed a lot of time due to injury.
The Broncos have traditionally used zone-blocking, and I'm not sure how much McDaniels will use that this year. If they don't, I'd expect the running game to be less efficient. Correll Buckhalter, Knowshon Moreno, Lamont Jordan, and Peyton Hillis all in the mix in the backfield. McDaniels used lots of backs in New England and might here too.
The defense was terrible last year and should be again this year. The transition from 4-3 to 3-4 will take time, and the secondary is laughably old.
There's a sense of impending doom here, and for this season, the sky really is falling. Still, coaches deserve time to build their team, so I'll try not to judge McDaniels after what is certainly a rebuilding year.
2009 Projected Record: 3-13
Kansas City Chiefs
Last Year: 2-14.
The Chiefs have added career backup Matt Cassel as their starting QB. Cassel got to play last year when Tom Brady went down, and developed throughout the year. He was playing pretty well towards the end of the year, but now he'll have a much less impressive supporting cast. Dwayne Bowe has averaged 1000 yards/season in his first two, but can he take the next step into stardom? Don't look for the answer from me, I'm torn and waiting to see. They lost Tony Gonzalez, so Cassel's other options will be a yikes! list of Mark Bradley, Terrance Copper, Devard Darling, Bobby Engram, and Sean Ryan.
Haley is used to passing a lot in Arizona, but then again he had Fitzgerald, Boldin, Warner, and a horrible run-blocking O-line. He's still stuck with terrible run-blocking, but he might run a bit more considering the drop-off in the passing game. Larry Johnson is a decent runner and Jamaal Charles provides a great change of pace.
A lot like Denver, the Chiefs defense is changing schemes and has a lot of ancient players. It will continue to be bad.
Matt Cassel provides just a glimmer of hope that the team might win enough games to count on both hands. They might, but I'll stick with 5.
2009 Projected Record: 5-11
Oakland Raiders
Last Year: 5-11
Jamarcus Russell will probably never be a good NFL QB. Sure, the O-line stunk and the receivers stunk, but so did the QB play. Jeff Garcia is 39 but could be a better option. The receivers aren't any better this year, either. Darius Heyward-Bay, Chaz Schillens, Javon Walker, Johnnie Lee Higgins. TE Zach Miller was a pleasant surprise, and might be the team's best receiver again this year.
Darren McFadden still looks like a star, just a star surrounded by jokes. Justin Fargas will get the ball less with Darren healthy, but is still a solid #2. Michael Bush is there in case the Raiders need a stronger power option.
Defensively, the Raiders have been terrible against the run and decent against the pass. Asomugha shuts down half the field, but still only decent against the pass. This year they could be worse because a lot of the key players are getting old.
This team needs new management.
2009 Projected Record: 3-13
San Diego Chargers
Last Year: 8-8
What a breakout year for Philip Rivers, who was the most efficient QB in the league last season. He'll almost certainly regress from his 8.0 adjusted net yards per passing play, but is still a very good QB. Likewise, Vincent Jackson had a career year that probably won't be matched. Chris Chambers is the 3rd option on this team, and at this point in his career you know what you're getting from him. (not much). Antonio Gates is an elite tight end who struggled with injury last year.
On the ground, starter LaDainian Tomlinson is on the downside of his great career and should give up a few more carries to shorty sensation Darren Sproles.
Adding Merriman and English to last year's defense should be a huge boost. Igor Olshanky was solid and is gone, but overall the front 7 will be better. Cromartie struggled last year but had a fractured hip. The defense should return to the league's elite.
2009 Projected Record: 12-4, AFC West Champs
Current Division Future Odds:
(Disclaimer: I don't bet futures or suggest you tie up money for that long)
931 San Diego Chargers -450
932 Any Other +350
9/10/2009 7:30 PM Odds to win the 2009 AFC West without SD Chargers
933 Denver Broncos +125
934 Kansas City Chiefs +185
935 Oakland Raiders +205
100 Turnips on the Chargers, even at that price.
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
NFL 2009 Preview - AFC South
Houston Texans
Last Year: 8-8
The Texans Matt Schaub has emerged as an above average quarterback who has trouble staying healthy. In the past, Sage Rosenfels has been a good backup; now, the team will rely on one of two other backups with starting experience - Dan Orlovsky and Rex Grossman. Schaub has no real excuse for getting hurt because the Texans O-line, once the joke of the league, has been good the past couple years. He'll want to stay healthy because he has one of the best receivers in the game, Andre Johnson. Another player who benefits from Andre's presence is Kevin Walter, the second WR. Owen Daniels has established himself as an elite tight end.
The Kubiak zone blocking scheme continues allow subpar backs to put up big numbers. This happened last year to Steve Slaton, who isn't a particularly great talent, but can certainly cut and run in this offense. He's an injury risk and fumble risk but if he avoids these problems he'll get the numbers again.
The defense has been one of the 5 worst units for the past 4 years now. In the front-7 they have some big names who make occasional big plays, but as a unit they play ineffectively. The team drafted Brian Cushing and added Antonio Smith - both should make an impact. Dunta Robinson and Eugene Wilson are solid in the secondary, but the other 2 DB positions are gaping holes.
There's just not much change here. If Schaub stays healthy all season, they might be a win better than last year. But if he doesn't, they might be even worse with Sage gone. I'll project they stay on the .500 plateau.
2009 Projected Record: 8-8
Indianapolis Colts
Last Year: 12-4
Peyton Manning has fallen off each season since his record breaking year, but he's still one of the very best quarterbacks in the league. Reggie Wayne has really been the #1 receiver for the past 2 years, so he'll be able to handle Marvin Harrison's departure with ease. Anthony Gonzalez is expected to step up and become the #2 receiver, and based on his play the past 2 seasons, he has the tools to succeed. TE Dallas Clark creates mismatches in the middle of the field and should continue to produce at a high level. Pierre Garcon is expected to be the 3rd WR. I don't know much about him, but 3rd receiver for the Colts is a big position.
On the ground, the Colts drafted Donald Brown out of Connecticut to help out Joseph Addai. Addai struggled last year with injury and is still a guy with a lot of potential. I'm not sold on Donald, and I expect Addai to hold on to his starting job all season.
In the two years since they won the Super Bowl with a much maligned defense, the Colts D has actually been really good. The only real change is the loss of Dungy's presence, and the possibility of a healthy Bob Sanders.
This team isn't a "dynasty" with only one super bowl win, but they're a ..."noble family" for sure. Expect another year comfortably in the playoffs.
2009 Projected Record: 12-4, AFC South Champs
Jacksonville Jaguars
Last Year: 5-11
Most of David Garrard's struggles last year can be blamed on injuries along the O-line and ineptitude at WR. However, I believed at the time, and still do, that Garrard's incredibly efficient 2007 was a fluke. He's an average QB at best. Torry Holt was added to give Garrard a legit. receiving option. Holt has lost a step but will definitely provide that. None of the other WR options are particularly appealing - Troy Williamson, Mike Sims-Walker. I thought Marcedes Lewis could have a breakout year if he worked on his hands, but now the team has signed WR-turned-TE Ernest Wilford, who may become the team's pass-catching TE.
On the ground there's only one guy here - Maurice Jones-Drew. I really can't speculate whether he can handle the load of being a full-time back. It's a big risk to take.
On defense, the Jaguars need second-year Derrick Harvey to step up and replace Paul Spicer. Rashean Mathis should be healthy this year, but the rest of the secondary is terrible now that Sensabaugh has left.
2009 Projected Record: 8-8
Tennessee Titans
Last Year: 13-3
The only way a 35 year old Kerry Collins with crap receiving options can succeed with scrubs as his receiving options is a terrific O-line, so kudos to them. If they can stay healthy again, they should dominate again. A couple of the aforementioned scrubs have left, so the starting receivers are Justin Gage and free agent acquisition Nate Washington. Washington was a good deep threat for the Steelers, but both are WR2 at best in most offenses. Alge Crumpler is on the decline and isn't much of a pass-catching TE anymore.
The big story of the backfield last year was the emergence of Chris Johnson. The kid has amazing speed, and though he has some facets of his game he needs to work on, that just means he has even more potential. LenDale White handle his reduction from 300-carry back to 200-carry back well, and the two provide a great 1-2 punch.
Albert Haynesworth's loss is huge. Players like Antwan Odom have put up big numbers alongside him, only to struggle in other defenses. They'll get better in a couple other spots though - Stephen Tulloch will develop in his second year, and Kyle Vanden Bosch shouldn't have to battle a nagging injury like he did last year. The secondary is essentially the same.
The loss of Haynesworth will hurt, but even without him this team is built for success for at least another season.
2009 Projected Record: 10-6
Current Division Future Odds:
(Disclaimer: I don't bet futures or suggest you tie up money for that long)
921 Indianapolis Colts +125
922 Tennessee Titans +285
923 Jacksonville Jaguars +405
924 Houston Texans +325
100 Turnips on the Colts.
Last Year: 8-8
The Texans Matt Schaub has emerged as an above average quarterback who has trouble staying healthy. In the past, Sage Rosenfels has been a good backup; now, the team will rely on one of two other backups with starting experience - Dan Orlovsky and Rex Grossman. Schaub has no real excuse for getting hurt because the Texans O-line, once the joke of the league, has been good the past couple years. He'll want to stay healthy because he has one of the best receivers in the game, Andre Johnson. Another player who benefits from Andre's presence is Kevin Walter, the second WR. Owen Daniels has established himself as an elite tight end.
The Kubiak zone blocking scheme continues allow subpar backs to put up big numbers. This happened last year to Steve Slaton, who isn't a particularly great talent, but can certainly cut and run in this offense. He's an injury risk and fumble risk but if he avoids these problems he'll get the numbers again.
The defense has been one of the 5 worst units for the past 4 years now. In the front-7 they have some big names who make occasional big plays, but as a unit they play ineffectively. The team drafted Brian Cushing and added Antonio Smith - both should make an impact. Dunta Robinson and Eugene Wilson are solid in the secondary, but the other 2 DB positions are gaping holes.
There's just not much change here. If Schaub stays healthy all season, they might be a win better than last year. But if he doesn't, they might be even worse with Sage gone. I'll project they stay on the .500 plateau.
2009 Projected Record: 8-8
Indianapolis Colts
Last Year: 12-4
Peyton Manning has fallen off each season since his record breaking year, but he's still one of the very best quarterbacks in the league. Reggie Wayne has really been the #1 receiver for the past 2 years, so he'll be able to handle Marvin Harrison's departure with ease. Anthony Gonzalez is expected to step up and become the #2 receiver, and based on his play the past 2 seasons, he has the tools to succeed. TE Dallas Clark creates mismatches in the middle of the field and should continue to produce at a high level. Pierre Garcon is expected to be the 3rd WR. I don't know much about him, but 3rd receiver for the Colts is a big position.
On the ground, the Colts drafted Donald Brown out of Connecticut to help out Joseph Addai. Addai struggled last year with injury and is still a guy with a lot of potential. I'm not sold on Donald, and I expect Addai to hold on to his starting job all season.
In the two years since they won the Super Bowl with a much maligned defense, the Colts D has actually been really good. The only real change is the loss of Dungy's presence, and the possibility of a healthy Bob Sanders.
This team isn't a "dynasty" with only one super bowl win, but they're a ..."noble family" for sure. Expect another year comfortably in the playoffs.
2009 Projected Record: 12-4, AFC South Champs
Jacksonville Jaguars
Last Year: 5-11
Most of David Garrard's struggles last year can be blamed on injuries along the O-line and ineptitude at WR. However, I believed at the time, and still do, that Garrard's incredibly efficient 2007 was a fluke. He's an average QB at best. Torry Holt was added to give Garrard a legit. receiving option. Holt has lost a step but will definitely provide that. None of the other WR options are particularly appealing - Troy Williamson, Mike Sims-Walker. I thought Marcedes Lewis could have a breakout year if he worked on his hands, but now the team has signed WR-turned-TE Ernest Wilford, who may become the team's pass-catching TE.
On the ground there's only one guy here - Maurice Jones-Drew. I really can't speculate whether he can handle the load of being a full-time back. It's a big risk to take.
On defense, the Jaguars need second-year Derrick Harvey to step up and replace Paul Spicer. Rashean Mathis should be healthy this year, but the rest of the secondary is terrible now that Sensabaugh has left.
2009 Projected Record: 8-8
Tennessee Titans
Last Year: 13-3
The only way a 35 year old Kerry Collins with crap receiving options can succeed with scrubs as his receiving options is a terrific O-line, so kudos to them. If they can stay healthy again, they should dominate again. A couple of the aforementioned scrubs have left, so the starting receivers are Justin Gage and free agent acquisition Nate Washington. Washington was a good deep threat for the Steelers, but both are WR2 at best in most offenses. Alge Crumpler is on the decline and isn't much of a pass-catching TE anymore.
The big story of the backfield last year was the emergence of Chris Johnson. The kid has amazing speed, and though he has some facets of his game he needs to work on, that just means he has even more potential. LenDale White handle his reduction from 300-carry back to 200-carry back well, and the two provide a great 1-2 punch.
Albert Haynesworth's loss is huge. Players like Antwan Odom have put up big numbers alongside him, only to struggle in other defenses. They'll get better in a couple other spots though - Stephen Tulloch will develop in his second year, and Kyle Vanden Bosch shouldn't have to battle a nagging injury like he did last year. The secondary is essentially the same.
The loss of Haynesworth will hurt, but even without him this team is built for success for at least another season.
2009 Projected Record: 10-6
Current Division Future Odds:
(Disclaimer: I don't bet futures or suggest you tie up money for that long)
921 Indianapolis Colts +125
922 Tennessee Titans +285
923 Jacksonville Jaguars +405
924 Houston Texans +325
100 Turnips on the Colts.
Monday, August 31, 2009
NFL 2009 Preview - AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Last Year: 11-5
Baltimore was very, very careful with QB Joe Flacco last season, relying on the ground game and committing extra players to pass protection. As a result, their passing plays were mediocre instead of terrible. They'll have to let Flacco out of his shell this year or defenses will adjust. Joe is very lucky to have the dependable Derrick Mason back - he almost retired. Mark Clayton and Demetrius Williams are the little-used other receivers, and they have yet to show they are anything special. Todd Heap's new role last year as primarily a blocker was disappointing to fantasy owners last year, but he may have helped Flacco and the Ravens more than he could have as a receiver.
In the backfield, Ray Rice is expected to start, but I don't see him as anything more than a change of pace back. Wilils McGahee is a back who can do just about everything halfway decent - outside runs, inside runs, helping in the passing game, but excels at nothing. Still, he should be the starter over Rice IMO. Le'Ron McClain will be used less as a runner and more as a fullback this year, but can still provide a few strong power runs a game.
The Ravens front 7 had one key departure this offseason: Bart Scott. His replacement, Tavares Goodman, could be good, but one expects the Ravens will miss Scott some. In the secondary, a CB job needed filling, as Ivy and McAllister are gone. They plucked the Falcons' best DB (though that's not saying much), Dominique Foxworth. This is still a very dangerous defense.
So the defense will keep clicking, but time is running out on the old-school plan on offense. There will be some regression, but this is probably still a winning team.
2009 Projected Record: 9-7
Cincinnati Bengalss
Last Year: 4-11-1
Last year the offensive line collapsed from perennial great to probably the worst in the AFC. Things will get at least a little better. Anthony Collins and first round pick Andre Smith are raw but talented starting tackles. Andre Whitworth and Bobbie Williams will be Guards again, which is where they played when the O-line was actually good. And Ghiaciuc is gone, the man never had a chance against any Nose Tackle, not good when all the teams in your division run 3-4. *Broke while writing this* Andre will miss the first few weeks with a broken foot, moving Whitworth to tackle (not terrible), and Livings to guard (also not terrible).
But just how much will they improve? Hopefully enough to keep QB Carson Palmer healthy. He hasn't been able to elude pass rushes like he did before he injured his knee, so protection is key. The good new is that his elbow problem looks like it's in the past. He'll certainly have plenty of weapons. TJ Houshmandzadeh left, but the team signed Laveranues Coles to replace him. Coles has lost a step, but so had TJ, and he can fill Housh's role at only a slightly lower level. The star of the show is undoubtedly Chad "Esteban" Ochocinco, the most interesting football player in the world. He battled injury (and a QB who had no time to throw downfield) last year, but I fully expect him to return to elite form this season if Carson stays upright. Kick return and trick play threat Andre Caldwell will be the slot receiver, and Chris Henry is a talented weapon that is finally staying away from off-field trouble.
In the backfield, no one seems to be pushing Cedric Benson for his role as feature-back, which is troubling. This line won't be great at run-blocking, and Benson needs good blocking to be effective.
The best news is on defense, where the team took a major step forward last year, and is an effective pass rush away from becoming an elite D. The addition of Tank Johnson could help just a bit. He'll rotate with Domata Peko and Pat Sims at DT. On the edges, Geathers and Odom are at least healthy, but Odom has been a bust at rushing the passer. Michael Johnson was drafted in the 3rd round as a situational pass rusher. At linebacker, the team drafted Rey Maualuga and will get back a healthy Keith Rivers. Dhani Jones, Rashad Jeanty, and Brandon Johnson started most games last year, and are all returning.
In the secondary, Jonathan Joseph is healthy this year, and both he and Leon Hall are primed to break out with a little help from the pass rush. The team added hard-hitting but can't-cover Roy Williams to rotate with Marvin White, Chinedum Ndukwe, and Chris Crocker. The good thing about having so many injuries last year is that there's lots of experienced depth.
Palmer back plus an improved defense should result in a bounceback season for the Bengals.
2009 Projected Record: 9-7
Cleveland Browns
Last Year: 4-12
Derek Anderson has proven he has very little upside, while Brady Quinn hasn't. It should be a no-brainer to let Quinn grow this year. He's got a good pass protecting line, but there's a lot of concern about his receivers. Braylon Edwards has only shown flashes of the potential he promised as the top 5 pick a few years ago, but the only thing he does consistently is drop passes. Perhaps a new supporting cast is what he needs, we'll find out this year. Other receivers are rookie Brian Robiskie, journeyman WR/DB Mike Furrey, KR specialist Josh Cribbs and veteran David Patten. At tight end, Kellen Winslow has been replaced by blocking specialist Robert Royal.
Jamal Lewis was the main back last year, but there are rumors he may be cut. He still has something left in the tank, but is 30 and still thinks he can be a feature back (not likely). Jerome Harrison is a decent scatback and ideally would take some of his carries. James Davis wasn't impressive last year at Clemson, but the team has liked his preseason.
The Browns defense was pretty average last year, and the shift from Crennel to Mangini won't require a lot of transition. The main change to the starting lineup is replacing Sean Jones with Abram Elam. They should be average-ish again but there's not a lot of hope for a leap forward.
Mangini was able to take the Jets to the playoffs in his first year there, but he'd have to be a magician to pull it off in Cleveland. Last year was pretty painful for the Browns at times, and this year won't be much better.
2009 Projected Record: 5-11
Pittsburgh Steelers
Last Year: 12-4, champions
Ben Roethlisberger had bad protection that he made look worse, and played poorly in general, but was still able to ride the defense to a super bowl win. He'll probably get better as the pass protection gets better. Hines Ward is a key blocker and possession receiver, who doesn't seem to be on the decline at all despite being 33. Coverages focused more on Santonio Holmes after his breakout season the year before, which freed up Hines and caused Holmes to struggle. Santonio is talented enough to keep developing and adjust to being a #1 WR. Heath Miller was still solid at tight end, so Pittsburgh's aerial attack is in good shape.
On the ground I still think Rashard Mendenhall is unimpressive, and Willie Parker's decline may continue. Parker's ypa has lowered each year, and the myth that he is "fast" is still annoying. (yes he was faster than Bettis, but who wasn't?) He didn't fumble once last year, but had injury problems. Pittsburgh's ground attack should be mediocre once again.
Then there's the defense, which is achieving dynasty-like status under Dick LeBeau. Last year they were hands down the best D in the league, and they haven't changed much. In the front 7 the big change is replacing Larry Foote with Lawrence Timmons. That's exactly what they drafted him for 2 years ago, and he has looked like he's ready for the job. The team lost a good corner in Bryant McFadden, but is replacing him in the lineup with another good one, William Gay.
2009 Projected Record: 12-4
Current Division Future Odds:
(Disclaimer: I don't bet futures or suggest you tie up money for that long)
9/10/2009 7:30 PM Odds to win the 2009 AFC North Division
911 Pittsburgh Steelers -210
912 Any Other +180
9/10/2009 7:30 PM Odds to win the 2009 AFC North w/o Pit Steelers
913 Baltimore Ravens -205
914 Cincinnati Bengals +285
915 Cleveland Browns +465
Fifty turnips on the Steelers. 100 on the Bengals.
Last Year: 11-5
Baltimore was very, very careful with QB Joe Flacco last season, relying on the ground game and committing extra players to pass protection. As a result, their passing plays were mediocre instead of terrible. They'll have to let Flacco out of his shell this year or defenses will adjust. Joe is very lucky to have the dependable Derrick Mason back - he almost retired. Mark Clayton and Demetrius Williams are the little-used other receivers, and they have yet to show they are anything special. Todd Heap's new role last year as primarily a blocker was disappointing to fantasy owners last year, but he may have helped Flacco and the Ravens more than he could have as a receiver.
In the backfield, Ray Rice is expected to start, but I don't see him as anything more than a change of pace back. Wilils McGahee is a back who can do just about everything halfway decent - outside runs, inside runs, helping in the passing game, but excels at nothing. Still, he should be the starter over Rice IMO. Le'Ron McClain will be used less as a runner and more as a fullback this year, but can still provide a few strong power runs a game.
The Ravens front 7 had one key departure this offseason: Bart Scott. His replacement, Tavares Goodman, could be good, but one expects the Ravens will miss Scott some. In the secondary, a CB job needed filling, as Ivy and McAllister are gone. They plucked the Falcons' best DB (though that's not saying much), Dominique Foxworth. This is still a very dangerous defense.
So the defense will keep clicking, but time is running out on the old-school plan on offense. There will be some regression, but this is probably still a winning team.
2009 Projected Record: 9-7
Cincinnati Bengalss
Last Year: 4-11-1
Last year the offensive line collapsed from perennial great to probably the worst in the AFC. Things will get at least a little better. Anthony Collins and first round pick Andre Smith are raw but talented starting tackles. Andre Whitworth and Bobbie Williams will be Guards again, which is where they played when the O-line was actually good. And Ghiaciuc is gone, the man never had a chance against any Nose Tackle, not good when all the teams in your division run 3-4. *Broke while writing this* Andre will miss the first few weeks with a broken foot, moving Whitworth to tackle (not terrible), and Livings to guard (also not terrible).
But just how much will they improve? Hopefully enough to keep QB Carson Palmer healthy. He hasn't been able to elude pass rushes like he did before he injured his knee, so protection is key. The good new is that his elbow problem looks like it's in the past. He'll certainly have plenty of weapons. TJ Houshmandzadeh left, but the team signed Laveranues Coles to replace him. Coles has lost a step, but so had TJ, and he can fill Housh's role at only a slightly lower level. The star of the show is undoubtedly Chad "Esteban" Ochocinco, the most interesting football player in the world. He battled injury (and a QB who had no time to throw downfield) last year, but I fully expect him to return to elite form this season if Carson stays upright. Kick return and trick play threat Andre Caldwell will be the slot receiver, and Chris Henry is a talented weapon that is finally staying away from off-field trouble.
In the backfield, no one seems to be pushing Cedric Benson for his role as feature-back, which is troubling. This line won't be great at run-blocking, and Benson needs good blocking to be effective.
The best news is on defense, where the team took a major step forward last year, and is an effective pass rush away from becoming an elite D. The addition of Tank Johnson could help just a bit. He'll rotate with Domata Peko and Pat Sims at DT. On the edges, Geathers and Odom are at least healthy, but Odom has been a bust at rushing the passer. Michael Johnson was drafted in the 3rd round as a situational pass rusher. At linebacker, the team drafted Rey Maualuga and will get back a healthy Keith Rivers. Dhani Jones, Rashad Jeanty, and Brandon Johnson started most games last year, and are all returning.
In the secondary, Jonathan Joseph is healthy this year, and both he and Leon Hall are primed to break out with a little help from the pass rush. The team added hard-hitting but can't-cover Roy Williams to rotate with Marvin White, Chinedum Ndukwe, and Chris Crocker. The good thing about having so many injuries last year is that there's lots of experienced depth.
Palmer back plus an improved defense should result in a bounceback season for the Bengals.
2009 Projected Record: 9-7
Cleveland Browns
Last Year: 4-12
Derek Anderson has proven he has very little upside, while Brady Quinn hasn't. It should be a no-brainer to let Quinn grow this year. He's got a good pass protecting line, but there's a lot of concern about his receivers. Braylon Edwards has only shown flashes of the potential he promised as the top 5 pick a few years ago, but the only thing he does consistently is drop passes. Perhaps a new supporting cast is what he needs, we'll find out this year. Other receivers are rookie Brian Robiskie, journeyman WR/DB Mike Furrey, KR specialist Josh Cribbs and veteran David Patten. At tight end, Kellen Winslow has been replaced by blocking specialist Robert Royal.
Jamal Lewis was the main back last year, but there are rumors he may be cut. He still has something left in the tank, but is 30 and still thinks he can be a feature back (not likely). Jerome Harrison is a decent scatback and ideally would take some of his carries. James Davis wasn't impressive last year at Clemson, but the team has liked his preseason.
The Browns defense was pretty average last year, and the shift from Crennel to Mangini won't require a lot of transition. The main change to the starting lineup is replacing Sean Jones with Abram Elam. They should be average-ish again but there's not a lot of hope for a leap forward.
Mangini was able to take the Jets to the playoffs in his first year there, but he'd have to be a magician to pull it off in Cleveland. Last year was pretty painful for the Browns at times, and this year won't be much better.
2009 Projected Record: 5-11
Pittsburgh Steelers
Last Year: 12-4, champions
Ben Roethlisberger had bad protection that he made look worse, and played poorly in general, but was still able to ride the defense to a super bowl win. He'll probably get better as the pass protection gets better. Hines Ward is a key blocker and possession receiver, who doesn't seem to be on the decline at all despite being 33. Coverages focused more on Santonio Holmes after his breakout season the year before, which freed up Hines and caused Holmes to struggle. Santonio is talented enough to keep developing and adjust to being a #1 WR. Heath Miller was still solid at tight end, so Pittsburgh's aerial attack is in good shape.
On the ground I still think Rashard Mendenhall is unimpressive, and Willie Parker's decline may continue. Parker's ypa has lowered each year, and the myth that he is "fast" is still annoying. (yes he was faster than Bettis, but who wasn't?) He didn't fumble once last year, but had injury problems. Pittsburgh's ground attack should be mediocre once again.
Then there's the defense, which is achieving dynasty-like status under Dick LeBeau. Last year they were hands down the best D in the league, and they haven't changed much. In the front 7 the big change is replacing Larry Foote with Lawrence Timmons. That's exactly what they drafted him for 2 years ago, and he has looked like he's ready for the job. The team lost a good corner in Bryant McFadden, but is replacing him in the lineup with another good one, William Gay.
2009 Projected Record: 12-4
Current Division Future Odds:
(Disclaimer: I don't bet futures or suggest you tie up money for that long)
9/10/2009 7:30 PM Odds to win the 2009 AFC North Division
911 Pittsburgh Steelers -210
912 Any Other +180
9/10/2009 7:30 PM Odds to win the 2009 AFC North w/o Pit Steelers
913 Baltimore Ravens -205
914 Cincinnati Bengals +285
915 Cleveland Browns +465
Fifty turnips on the Steelers. 100 on the Bengals.
NFL 2009 Preview - AFC East
Buffalo Bills
Last Year: 7-9
The Bills left side of their O-line seems very up in the air at first glance, and is the reason no one expects anything from the Bills. Elite pass protecting LT Jason Peters is gone. But when the dust settles, the O-line looks mediocre, not terrible. Langston Walker is no Peters, but he'll take over at LT and be mediocre. Rookie guards Wood and Levitre are very promising but will probably be mediocre as rookies. Hangartner can be a decent center, and Brad Butler is back at RT. This is nothing worth panicking over. Terrell Owens is a shell of his former self, but a change of scenery should help him, and he's still an improvement at WR for Trent Edwards. I'm not the biggest fan of Trent, but he surprised me last year, and could take another step forward this year. Lee Evans will benefit from TO's presence as well.
Marshawn Lynch is a beast of an RB who has yet to live up to his potential. He'll have to wait until Buffalo's 4th game to try to do that this year, thanks to his 3-game suspension. He improved in the passing game last year and should continue to grow into a star. His backup, Fred Jackson, has actually posted a higher ypa than Lynch the past two years, and is equally helpful in the passing game.
The main change on defense was replacing Jabari Greer with Drayton Florence. Bills defense should be mediocre once again.
Overall, Edwards may take another step forward, but that should be cancelled out by the loss of Jason Peters. This team played at a .500 level last year and will again this year.
2009 Projected Record: 8-8
Miami Dolphins
Last Year: 11-5, AFC East Champs
Wildcat was the big story for Miami last year, but give a lot of credit first to the O-line, and second to Chad Pennington. He was very efficient last year, and seems really comfortable in this offense. Ronnie Brown was in amazing form before he tore his ACL in 2007, and I think he'll recover more of that form this year. The Dolphins have a mess at WR. Ted Ginn will start, but I think he's a year away from becoming a good starting WR. Davone Bess, Brian Hartline, and Greg Camarillo are also in the mix. Anthon Fasano has established himself as a solid, balanced tight end.
Defensively, the Dolphins lost Vonnie Holliday, but have had Philip Merling waiting in the wings. They also lost starting corner Andre' Goodman, but spent their first two draft picks on corners. Gibril Wilson will be an improvement at safety over the departed Renaldo Hill. The defense was average last year and the goal is to be average again this year.
The wildcat won't be as surprising this year, and usually when teams breakout like this from a disaster season, they regress the next year. .500 seems likely.
2009 Projected Record: 8-8
New England Patriots
Last Year:11-5
This team won 11 games without one of the most important players in the game, Tom Brady. That alone makes them the super bowl favorites since Brady has recovered from knee surgery. The Brady to Randy Moss connection was unstoppable 2 years ago, and will still be a threat on every play. He'll still have Wes Welker underneath, and now veteran speedster Joey Galloway is in the mix.
There's a lot of people in the mix to get carries for the Patriots, but they'll all have a great O-line to run behind. Sammy Morris was the best of the bunch last year, Laurence Maroney only made it 3 games last year, and Fred Taylor has been added, although his best days are behind him.
The defense is massively in flux, and the end result looks very average. For the record:
IN: Leigh Bodden, Shawn Springs, rookie DB's Patrick Chung and Darius Butler
OUT: Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, Rodney Harrison, Ellis Hobbs, Deltha O'Neal
With just an average defense, adding Tom Brady to complete a terrific offense won't get the Patriots back to 16-0, but it will get them comfortably into the playoffs.
2009 Projected Record: 13-3
New York Jets
Last Year: 9-7
Brett Favre didn't have much success here last year, so it's hard to expect any rookie to step in and have success. Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco were a pair of rarities last year - successful rookie QB's - but you can't expect that out of Mark Sanchez. Jerricho Cotchery will be his #1 WR. He struggled last year with Favre at QB, but is a solid starting WR. Gone is receiver Laveranues Coles. The jets other receiving options are young deep threat David Clowney, young possession receiver Chansi Stuckey, converted QB Brad Smith, and 2nd-year pass-catching TE Dustin Keller. Not the most impressive group in the world, but there's some potential.
Thomas Jones made his first pro bowl last year at age 30, and seemed to be the main beneficiary of Favre's presence. He may face more stacked boxes this year, but he'll have to keep being the hammer. Leon Washington is an excellent return specialist, 3rd down specialist, and weapon in the passing game, but the Jets would be wise to keep him concentrated on these roles. The Jets drafted unimpressive looking rookie Shonn Greene, who I don't expect to be much of a factor.
Rex Ryan is the new head coach, so naturally, the Jets have changed schemes to a "Rex Ryan" style defense. The problem is, he doesn't have the weapons in New York that he enjoyed in Baltimore. He did bring in a few though. Bart Scott will boost the front 7, while Lito Sheppard and Brian Leohnard have been added to shore up the secondary. The defense will still be good, but in this transition year, there will be more big plays - the good kind and the bad kind.
Sanchez and Ryan might be expected to be this year's "Flacco and Harbaugh" or "Ryan and Smith," but they should be given a year to settle in.
2009 Projected Record: 7-9
Current Division Future Odds:
(Disclaimer: I don't bet futures or suggest you tie up money for that long)
9/10/2009 7:30 PM Odds to win the 2009 AFC East Division
901 New England Patriots -400
902 Any Other +300
9/10/2009 7:30 PM Odds to win the 2009 AFC East without NE Patriots
903 Miami Dolphins +205
904 New York Jets +205
905 Buffalo Bills +125
Just risk 100 turnips on the patriots, and hope Brady stays healthy.
Last Year: 7-9
The Bills left side of their O-line seems very up in the air at first glance, and is the reason no one expects anything from the Bills. Elite pass protecting LT Jason Peters is gone. But when the dust settles, the O-line looks mediocre, not terrible. Langston Walker is no Peters, but he'll take over at LT and be mediocre. Rookie guards Wood and Levitre are very promising but will probably be mediocre as rookies. Hangartner can be a decent center, and Brad Butler is back at RT. This is nothing worth panicking over. Terrell Owens is a shell of his former self, but a change of scenery should help him, and he's still an improvement at WR for Trent Edwards. I'm not the biggest fan of Trent, but he surprised me last year, and could take another step forward this year. Lee Evans will benefit from TO's presence as well.
Marshawn Lynch is a beast of an RB who has yet to live up to his potential. He'll have to wait until Buffalo's 4th game to try to do that this year, thanks to his 3-game suspension. He improved in the passing game last year and should continue to grow into a star. His backup, Fred Jackson, has actually posted a higher ypa than Lynch the past two years, and is equally helpful in the passing game.
The main change on defense was replacing Jabari Greer with Drayton Florence. Bills defense should be mediocre once again.
Overall, Edwards may take another step forward, but that should be cancelled out by the loss of Jason Peters. This team played at a .500 level last year and will again this year.
2009 Projected Record: 8-8
Miami Dolphins
Last Year: 11-5, AFC East Champs
Wildcat was the big story for Miami last year, but give a lot of credit first to the O-line, and second to Chad Pennington. He was very efficient last year, and seems really comfortable in this offense. Ronnie Brown was in amazing form before he tore his ACL in 2007, and I think he'll recover more of that form this year. The Dolphins have a mess at WR. Ted Ginn will start, but I think he's a year away from becoming a good starting WR. Davone Bess, Brian Hartline, and Greg Camarillo are also in the mix. Anthon Fasano has established himself as a solid, balanced tight end.
Defensively, the Dolphins lost Vonnie Holliday, but have had Philip Merling waiting in the wings. They also lost starting corner Andre' Goodman, but spent their first two draft picks on corners. Gibril Wilson will be an improvement at safety over the departed Renaldo Hill. The defense was average last year and the goal is to be average again this year.
The wildcat won't be as surprising this year, and usually when teams breakout like this from a disaster season, they regress the next year. .500 seems likely.
2009 Projected Record: 8-8
New England Patriots
Last Year:11-5
This team won 11 games without one of the most important players in the game, Tom Brady. That alone makes them the super bowl favorites since Brady has recovered from knee surgery. The Brady to Randy Moss connection was unstoppable 2 years ago, and will still be a threat on every play. He'll still have Wes Welker underneath, and now veteran speedster Joey Galloway is in the mix.
There's a lot of people in the mix to get carries for the Patriots, but they'll all have a great O-line to run behind. Sammy Morris was the best of the bunch last year, Laurence Maroney only made it 3 games last year, and Fred Taylor has been added, although his best days are behind him.
The defense is massively in flux, and the end result looks very average. For the record:
IN: Leigh Bodden, Shawn Springs, rookie DB's Patrick Chung and Darius Butler
OUT: Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, Rodney Harrison, Ellis Hobbs, Deltha O'Neal
With just an average defense, adding Tom Brady to complete a terrific offense won't get the Patriots back to 16-0, but it will get them comfortably into the playoffs.
2009 Projected Record: 13-3
New York Jets
Last Year: 9-7
Brett Favre didn't have much success here last year, so it's hard to expect any rookie to step in and have success. Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco were a pair of rarities last year - successful rookie QB's - but you can't expect that out of Mark Sanchez. Jerricho Cotchery will be his #1 WR. He struggled last year with Favre at QB, but is a solid starting WR. Gone is receiver Laveranues Coles. The jets other receiving options are young deep threat David Clowney, young possession receiver Chansi Stuckey, converted QB Brad Smith, and 2nd-year pass-catching TE Dustin Keller. Not the most impressive group in the world, but there's some potential.
Thomas Jones made his first pro bowl last year at age 30, and seemed to be the main beneficiary of Favre's presence. He may face more stacked boxes this year, but he'll have to keep being the hammer. Leon Washington is an excellent return specialist, 3rd down specialist, and weapon in the passing game, but the Jets would be wise to keep him concentrated on these roles. The Jets drafted unimpressive looking rookie Shonn Greene, who I don't expect to be much of a factor.
Rex Ryan is the new head coach, so naturally, the Jets have changed schemes to a "Rex Ryan" style defense. The problem is, he doesn't have the weapons in New York that he enjoyed in Baltimore. He did bring in a few though. Bart Scott will boost the front 7, while Lito Sheppard and Brian Leohnard have been added to shore up the secondary. The defense will still be good, but in this transition year, there will be more big plays - the good kind and the bad kind.
Sanchez and Ryan might be expected to be this year's "Flacco and Harbaugh" or "Ryan and Smith," but they should be given a year to settle in.
2009 Projected Record: 7-9
Current Division Future Odds:
(Disclaimer: I don't bet futures or suggest you tie up money for that long)
9/10/2009 7:30 PM Odds to win the 2009 AFC East Division
901 New England Patriots -400
902 Any Other +300
9/10/2009 7:30 PM Odds to win the 2009 AFC East without NE Patriots
903 Miami Dolphins +205
904 New York Jets +205
905 Buffalo Bills +125
Just risk 100 turnips on the patriots, and hope Brady stays healthy.
NFL 2009 Preview - NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
Last Year: 9-7
Whether you're talking about Jessica Simpson or Terrell Owens, Tony Romo should benefit from some "addition by subtraction" in his life this year. Owens has lost a step, struggled to fight off press coverage, yet still demanded the ball. Roy Williams seems like more of a WR2 ideally, but he should put up better numbers this year as he becomes familiar with the offense. Patrick Crayton also WR2 quality, more of a possession receiver. TE Jason Witten is the team's go-to receiver and will almost certainly put up another Pro Bowl season.
The Cowboys have an impressive stable of backs, led by 5th year Marion Barber III. Barber is an effective weapon but probably shouldn't be used as a full-time guy. He won't have to be if Felix Jones is healthy this year He flashed big play ability as a back and on kick returns last year. He's still got a lot to work on at the pro level skill-wise, but the talent is there. Tashard Choice being the third back means Barber might be the third most talented RB on his team. Which is really saying something about Jones and Choice. With this decent O-line and good running game, Romo has the ability to make the offense work.
The defense should continue to be above average. They've replaced Canty and Zach Thomas with Olshanky and Brookings - not a lot of difference. In the secondary, Pacman and Anthony Henry are gone. They've had Mike Jenkins waiting in the wings to start at the vacant CB spot. They also signed Gerald Sensabaugh to start with Ken Hamlin at safety. Once again, players are changing, but the results should be the same.
I expect Romo to take the next step forward, and the defense to remain solid, so the Cowboys have a shot at the playoffs even in this tough division.
2009 Projected Record: 10-6
New York Giants
Last Year: 12-4, NFC East Champs
Eli Manning got way overpayed this offseason. Even by cutting his interception total in half, he was still just an average NFL starting QB. Even worse, that kind of "career low" interception total at this point in a career seems very fluky. There's more bad news, as Plaxico Burress is off to jail for 20+ months. There are a number of competitors for his and Amani Toomer's former spots. Domenik Hixon replaced Burress last year and, somewhat surprisingly, delivered as the team's go-to guy. Steve Smith has emerged as an adequate possesion WR2. Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks are young unproven talents who may be expected to contribute. TE Kevin Boss has replaced Shockey without the team missing a beat.
On the ground, the team lost Derrick Ward to free agency, and promising rookie Andre Brown to injury. They still have a formidable, if not dependable, backfield. Brandon Jacobs is one of the best runners in the game, but is very very injury prone. Ahmad Bradshaw has only had 90 career carries, but has looked impressive. Danny Ware is even more of an unknown, and will likely get some carries.
On defense, Osi is back, and the whole front 4 rotation is among the league's best. They'll have to do a good job to conceal a sudden weakness on the team: linebacker. In the middle, Antonio Pierce appeared to have lost a step last year. At OLB they look to be below average: Boley and Sintim. In the secondary the only change is losing the underrated James Butler at safety. The biggest change is the loss of Spagnuolo. As you can probably tell from my Rams preview, I'm a Spagnuolo fan and think his departure will have an averse effect on the Giants D.
Decline on both sides of the ball is not good in this division. Expect the Giants to be one of the more surprising playoff no-shows.
2009 Projected Record: 8-8
Philadelphia Eagles
Last Year:9-6-1 (lost in NFC Championship Game)
Michael Vick is making the headlines by being signed, but Donovan McNabb is still the quarterback. McNabb's inconsistent from game to game, but you know what you're going to get from him out of a full season. The O-line had no trouble with pass protection last year, but could be even better with the addition of Jason Peters and Stacy Andrews. You know what you're going to get out of Brian Westbrook too, a couple missed games, but effective otherwise. The team drafted LeSean McCoy but he would be a huge dropoff, both on the ground and in the passing game.
As a rookie last year, DeSean Jackson became the team's #1 playmaker by default. He's got very impressive quickness and speed, but still has a lot of developing to do. Kevin Curtis is a mediocre WR2. The team drafted Jeremy Maclin to replace him eventually, but he probably won't have much success as a rookie. Jason Avant is an OK slot option, and former WR1 Reggie Brown might not make the team.
On defense, the Eagles lost Brian Dawkins, but he has been significantly on the decline anyway. Other than that, the defensive players are mostly the same, with some added depth in the secondary. Coordinator Jim Johnson passed away and can never be replaced, but this is still his defense out there.
Really the whole team is mostly unchanged other than depth, coaching, and the O-line.
2009 Projected Record: 9-7
Washington Redskins
Last Year: 8-8
This will be Jason Campbell's second year in Jim Zorn's West-Coast-ish system. There's definitely a learnign curve, but Campbell is talented and has a good chance to break out this season. The Redskins need one of their second year receivers, Devin Thomas or Malcolm Kelly, can step up and take some pressure off the starters. Coverages began to focus exclusively on Santana Moss and Chris Cooley last season, and as a result the Washington offense was shut down. If someone does step up, Santana is in line for a great season - consistent Cooley gets his numbers either way. Also, if one of the young WR's step up, Antwaan Randle-El will have a rebound season in the slot.
On the ground, Clinton Portis is still in his prime. The team is expected to give him a few more breathers and use Ladell Betts more, but they'd be wise to get the most out of Portis they can without running him into the ground.
On defense, the Redskins have lost Shawn Springs and added Albert Haynesworth. They have Rogers to replace Springs, and Haynesworth is one of the most game-changing players in the NFL.
I expect improvement on both sides of the ball, so Washington could be a surprise division winner.
2009 Projected Record: 11-5
Current Division Future Odds:
(Disclaimer: I don't bet futures or suggest you tie up money for that long)
New York Giants +145
Philadelphia Eagles +185
Dallas Cowboys +285
Washington Redskins +405
Put 100 turnips on the 'Skins
Last Year: 9-7
Whether you're talking about Jessica Simpson or Terrell Owens, Tony Romo should benefit from some "addition by subtraction" in his life this year. Owens has lost a step, struggled to fight off press coverage, yet still demanded the ball. Roy Williams seems like more of a WR2 ideally, but he should put up better numbers this year as he becomes familiar with the offense. Patrick Crayton also WR2 quality, more of a possession receiver. TE Jason Witten is the team's go-to receiver and will almost certainly put up another Pro Bowl season.
The Cowboys have an impressive stable of backs, led by 5th year Marion Barber III. Barber is an effective weapon but probably shouldn't be used as a full-time guy. He won't have to be if Felix Jones is healthy this year He flashed big play ability as a back and on kick returns last year. He's still got a lot to work on at the pro level skill-wise, but the talent is there. Tashard Choice being the third back means Barber might be the third most talented RB on his team. Which is really saying something about Jones and Choice. With this decent O-line and good running game, Romo has the ability to make the offense work.
The defense should continue to be above average. They've replaced Canty and Zach Thomas with Olshanky and Brookings - not a lot of difference. In the secondary, Pacman and Anthony Henry are gone. They've had Mike Jenkins waiting in the wings to start at the vacant CB spot. They also signed Gerald Sensabaugh to start with Ken Hamlin at safety. Once again, players are changing, but the results should be the same.
I expect Romo to take the next step forward, and the defense to remain solid, so the Cowboys have a shot at the playoffs even in this tough division.
2009 Projected Record: 10-6
New York Giants
Last Year: 12-4, NFC East Champs
Eli Manning got way overpayed this offseason. Even by cutting his interception total in half, he was still just an average NFL starting QB. Even worse, that kind of "career low" interception total at this point in a career seems very fluky. There's more bad news, as Plaxico Burress is off to jail for 20+ months. There are a number of competitors for his and Amani Toomer's former spots. Domenik Hixon replaced Burress last year and, somewhat surprisingly, delivered as the team's go-to guy. Steve Smith has emerged as an adequate possesion WR2. Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks are young unproven talents who may be expected to contribute. TE Kevin Boss has replaced Shockey without the team missing a beat.
On the ground, the team lost Derrick Ward to free agency, and promising rookie Andre Brown to injury. They still have a formidable, if not dependable, backfield. Brandon Jacobs is one of the best runners in the game, but is very very injury prone. Ahmad Bradshaw has only had 90 career carries, but has looked impressive. Danny Ware is even more of an unknown, and will likely get some carries.
On defense, Osi is back, and the whole front 4 rotation is among the league's best. They'll have to do a good job to conceal a sudden weakness on the team: linebacker. In the middle, Antonio Pierce appeared to have lost a step last year. At OLB they look to be below average: Boley and Sintim. In the secondary the only change is losing the underrated James Butler at safety. The biggest change is the loss of Spagnuolo. As you can probably tell from my Rams preview, I'm a Spagnuolo fan and think his departure will have an averse effect on the Giants D.
Decline on both sides of the ball is not good in this division. Expect the Giants to be one of the more surprising playoff no-shows.
2009 Projected Record: 8-8
Philadelphia Eagles
Last Year:9-6-1 (lost in NFC Championship Game)
Michael Vick is making the headlines by being signed, but Donovan McNabb is still the quarterback. McNabb's inconsistent from game to game, but you know what you're going to get from him out of a full season. The O-line had no trouble with pass protection last year, but could be even better with the addition of Jason Peters and Stacy Andrews. You know what you're going to get out of Brian Westbrook too, a couple missed games, but effective otherwise. The team drafted LeSean McCoy but he would be a huge dropoff, both on the ground and in the passing game.
As a rookie last year, DeSean Jackson became the team's #1 playmaker by default. He's got very impressive quickness and speed, but still has a lot of developing to do. Kevin Curtis is a mediocre WR2. The team drafted Jeremy Maclin to replace him eventually, but he probably won't have much success as a rookie. Jason Avant is an OK slot option, and former WR1 Reggie Brown might not make the team.
On defense, the Eagles lost Brian Dawkins, but he has been significantly on the decline anyway. Other than that, the defensive players are mostly the same, with some added depth in the secondary. Coordinator Jim Johnson passed away and can never be replaced, but this is still his defense out there.
Really the whole team is mostly unchanged other than depth, coaching, and the O-line.
2009 Projected Record: 9-7
Washington Redskins
Last Year: 8-8
This will be Jason Campbell's second year in Jim Zorn's West-Coast-ish system. There's definitely a learnign curve, but Campbell is talented and has a good chance to break out this season. The Redskins need one of their second year receivers, Devin Thomas or Malcolm Kelly, can step up and take some pressure off the starters. Coverages began to focus exclusively on Santana Moss and Chris Cooley last season, and as a result the Washington offense was shut down. If someone does step up, Santana is in line for a great season - consistent Cooley gets his numbers either way. Also, if one of the young WR's step up, Antwaan Randle-El will have a rebound season in the slot.
On the ground, Clinton Portis is still in his prime. The team is expected to give him a few more breathers and use Ladell Betts more, but they'd be wise to get the most out of Portis they can without running him into the ground.
On defense, the Redskins have lost Shawn Springs and added Albert Haynesworth. They have Rogers to replace Springs, and Haynesworth is one of the most game-changing players in the NFL.
I expect improvement on both sides of the ball, so Washington could be a surprise division winner.
2009 Projected Record: 11-5
Current Division Future Odds:
(Disclaimer: I don't bet futures or suggest you tie up money for that long)
New York Giants +145
Philadelphia Eagles +185
Dallas Cowboys +285
Washington Redskins +405
Put 100 turnips on the 'Skins
Sunday, August 30, 2009
NFL 2009 Preview - NFC North
Chicago Bears
Last Year: 9-7
Do the Bears finally have a franchise quarterback? Maybe. Jay Cutler produced like a franchise QB last year, but that was with one of the best O-lines in the league, and with much better receivers than he'll have in Chicago. Devin Hester will start at WR. Last season he made the full conversion to wide receiver, and showed significant development. However, he'll have to improve just as much this season to become a viable starter. Earl Bennett is a second year possession receiver, who didn't play last year, but played with Cutler for one year at Vanderbilt. TE Greg Olsen is likely to be the go-to receiver and should have a breakout year. Rashied Davis has made little of numerous chances, and Desmond Clark is declining rapidly.
Cutler will also have good receiving RB Matt Forte at his disposal. In addition to helping out the pass attack, Forte's a decent grinder who only fumbled once last year. His backup, Kevin Jones, has always been a talented runner, but it's unknown how much injuries have taken out of him.
Defensively, the Bears have been very good. The front 7 has been solid against the run, but last year had trouble getting pressure. They added Piso Tinoisamoa to combine with Urlacher and Briggs for one of the best LB units in the league. Up front they could really use a healthy Tommy Harris. In the secondary, Vasher and Tillman will struggle, and the Bears new safeties Josh Bullocks and Craig Steltz aren't impressive.
We'll learn a lot more about Cutler this year. I expect a drop-off from his efficiency last year, but an improvement over what the Bears got at QB last year.
2009 Projected Record: 9-7
Detroit Lions
Last Year: 0-16, laughingstock of NFL
The Lions drafted Matt Stafford but he'll surely struggle if forced to start this year. Journeyman Daunte Culpepper is also in the mix, but neither figure to have much success behind the Detroit 0-line. The one plus in the passing game is Calvin Johnson, who has produced at a high level despite playing for a terrible team, and is still getting better. Journeyman punt returner Dennis Northcutt is listed as the other starting WR. They are going with rookie Brandon Pettigrew as their pass catching tight end, and Will Heller as the blocking tight end. Kevin Smith is the starting RB. His 4.1 ypc might seem acceptable considering the awful line he ran behind, but it's not as impressive when the Lions were in very few obvious running situations last year. Career backup Maurice Morris is around to continue being a career backup, or perhaps more if Smith falters. Basically, outside of Calvin, this offense is junk.
The defense was even worse than the offense last year, and should continue to struggle despite a massive overhaul. Gone are Shaun Cody, Cory Redding, Corey Smith, Paris Lennon, Ryan Nece, Leigh Bodden, Travis Fisher, Dwight Smith, and Bryan Kelly. Added are Grady Jackson, Julian Peterson, Larry Foote, Philip Buchannon, and Anthony Henry. All of their adds are players who are past their prime, with the exception of Foote. The defense should still suffer through the transition.
This team looks different (on defense at least), but is still the worst team in the league.
2009 Projected Record: 2-14
Green Bay Packers
Last Year:6-10
I have to admit, I saw Aaron Rodgers as just another Tedford-coached quarterback whose college success wouldn't translate to the pros. I'm still not 100% convinced, and I expect him to struggle a bit this year, now that defenses know what to expect. This could mean Green Bay's terrific WR duo of Greg Jennings and Donald Driver have their numbers decline as well. Ryan Grant is not a great runner and should be closer to last year's 4 ypc than the previous year's 5 ypc.
The Packers defense, like Tampa, are also switching to a scheme that doesn't match their personnel at all. Unlike the Tampa situation, I think this is going to result in a big step back in this transition year.
This entry is short, but there haven't been a lot of player changes (just a lot of scheme changes). The Packers were an unlucky 6-10 last year, but they should be worse on both sides of the ball. So even if their luck reverses, they're looking at another 6-10 season.
2009 Projected Record: 6-10
Minnesota Vikings
Last Year: 10-6, NFC North Champs
Brett Favre steps in at QB, and even at his age, he's a big improvement over incumbent Tarvaris Jackson. He'll need to stay healthy though, the Vikings consistently have poor pass protection. Bernard Berrian has emerged as one of the most legit deep threat receivers in the league, and it'll be fun to watch what he does with a better QB. Other receivers include third year possession receiver Sidney Rice, journeyman Bobby Wade, and rookie kick returner/trick place specialist/wide receiver? Percy Harvin. Vikings TE Visanthe Shiancoe had a breakout year as a receiver last year, and could duplicate or improve on those numbers now that Favre is under center.
Adrian Peterson is an absolute monster and the ingredients are there for two things. One, a hall-of-fame type of season. The kind of season young RB's dream about. The other, based on his workload last season, and his running style, is injury. He's boom-or-bust for sure, and as a neutral I hope it's BOOM because it will be fun to watch.
For all the excitement on offense, the defense might be a huge letdown this year. The Vikings might lose both the Williams DT's for at least 4 games, and they really have no one to take their place. If even one of them is missing, the Vikings traditionally stout run D will look really mediocre. The Vikings jump to an elite defense last year was the addition of Jared Allen's pass rush, and he's back for more. The Vikings have a very good corner tandem as well, but the safeties could be a trouble spot. Madieu Williams is never healthy, and Tyrell Johnson is an unknown. For a change, the Vikings weakness on D is now up the middle.
They are big if's, but if Favre, AP, and Allen all stay healthy, this team belongs back in the playoffs.
2009 Projected Record: 10-6 NFC North Champs
Current Division Future Odds:
(Disclaimer: I don't bet futures or suggest you tie up money for that long)
Minnesota Vikings +165
Chicago Bears +185
Green Bay Packers +185
Detroit Lions +1215
Maybe small bets on the Vikings and Bears...but nah, just avoid it.
Last Year: 9-7
Do the Bears finally have a franchise quarterback? Maybe. Jay Cutler produced like a franchise QB last year, but that was with one of the best O-lines in the league, and with much better receivers than he'll have in Chicago. Devin Hester will start at WR. Last season he made the full conversion to wide receiver, and showed significant development. However, he'll have to improve just as much this season to become a viable starter. Earl Bennett is a second year possession receiver, who didn't play last year, but played with Cutler for one year at Vanderbilt. TE Greg Olsen is likely to be the go-to receiver and should have a breakout year. Rashied Davis has made little of numerous chances, and Desmond Clark is declining rapidly.
Cutler will also have good receiving RB Matt Forte at his disposal. In addition to helping out the pass attack, Forte's a decent grinder who only fumbled once last year. His backup, Kevin Jones, has always been a talented runner, but it's unknown how much injuries have taken out of him.
Defensively, the Bears have been very good. The front 7 has been solid against the run, but last year had trouble getting pressure. They added Piso Tinoisamoa to combine with Urlacher and Briggs for one of the best LB units in the league. Up front they could really use a healthy Tommy Harris. In the secondary, Vasher and Tillman will struggle, and the Bears new safeties Josh Bullocks and Craig Steltz aren't impressive.
We'll learn a lot more about Cutler this year. I expect a drop-off from his efficiency last year, but an improvement over what the Bears got at QB last year.
2009 Projected Record: 9-7
Detroit Lions
Last Year: 0-16, laughingstock of NFL
The Lions drafted Matt Stafford but he'll surely struggle if forced to start this year. Journeyman Daunte Culpepper is also in the mix, but neither figure to have much success behind the Detroit 0-line. The one plus in the passing game is Calvin Johnson, who has produced at a high level despite playing for a terrible team, and is still getting better. Journeyman punt returner Dennis Northcutt is listed as the other starting WR. They are going with rookie Brandon Pettigrew as their pass catching tight end, and Will Heller as the blocking tight end. Kevin Smith is the starting RB. His 4.1 ypc might seem acceptable considering the awful line he ran behind, but it's not as impressive when the Lions were in very few obvious running situations last year. Career backup Maurice Morris is around to continue being a career backup, or perhaps more if Smith falters. Basically, outside of Calvin, this offense is junk.
The defense was even worse than the offense last year, and should continue to struggle despite a massive overhaul. Gone are Shaun Cody, Cory Redding, Corey Smith, Paris Lennon, Ryan Nece, Leigh Bodden, Travis Fisher, Dwight Smith, and Bryan Kelly. Added are Grady Jackson, Julian Peterson, Larry Foote, Philip Buchannon, and Anthony Henry. All of their adds are players who are past their prime, with the exception of Foote. The defense should still suffer through the transition.
This team looks different (on defense at least), but is still the worst team in the league.
2009 Projected Record: 2-14
Green Bay Packers
Last Year:6-10
I have to admit, I saw Aaron Rodgers as just another Tedford-coached quarterback whose college success wouldn't translate to the pros. I'm still not 100% convinced, and I expect him to struggle a bit this year, now that defenses know what to expect. This could mean Green Bay's terrific WR duo of Greg Jennings and Donald Driver have their numbers decline as well. Ryan Grant is not a great runner and should be closer to last year's 4 ypc than the previous year's 5 ypc.
The Packers defense, like Tampa, are also switching to a scheme that doesn't match their personnel at all. Unlike the Tampa situation, I think this is going to result in a big step back in this transition year.
This entry is short, but there haven't been a lot of player changes (just a lot of scheme changes). The Packers were an unlucky 6-10 last year, but they should be worse on both sides of the ball. So even if their luck reverses, they're looking at another 6-10 season.
2009 Projected Record: 6-10
Minnesota Vikings
Last Year: 10-6, NFC North Champs
Brett Favre steps in at QB, and even at his age, he's a big improvement over incumbent Tarvaris Jackson. He'll need to stay healthy though, the Vikings consistently have poor pass protection. Bernard Berrian has emerged as one of the most legit deep threat receivers in the league, and it'll be fun to watch what he does with a better QB. Other receivers include third year possession receiver Sidney Rice, journeyman Bobby Wade, and rookie kick returner/trick place specialist/wide receiver? Percy Harvin. Vikings TE Visanthe Shiancoe had a breakout year as a receiver last year, and could duplicate or improve on those numbers now that Favre is under center.
Adrian Peterson is an absolute monster and the ingredients are there for two things. One, a hall-of-fame type of season. The kind of season young RB's dream about. The other, based on his workload last season, and his running style, is injury. He's boom-or-bust for sure, and as a neutral I hope it's BOOM because it will be fun to watch.
For all the excitement on offense, the defense might be a huge letdown this year. The Vikings might lose both the Williams DT's for at least 4 games, and they really have no one to take their place. If even one of them is missing, the Vikings traditionally stout run D will look really mediocre. The Vikings jump to an elite defense last year was the addition of Jared Allen's pass rush, and he's back for more. The Vikings have a very good corner tandem as well, but the safeties could be a trouble spot. Madieu Williams is never healthy, and Tyrell Johnson is an unknown. For a change, the Vikings weakness on D is now up the middle.
They are big if's, but if Favre, AP, and Allen all stay healthy, this team belongs back in the playoffs.
2009 Projected Record: 10-6 NFC North Champs
Current Division Future Odds:
(Disclaimer: I don't bet futures or suggest you tie up money for that long)
Minnesota Vikings +165
Chicago Bears +185
Green Bay Packers +185
Detroit Lions +1215
Maybe small bets on the Vikings and Bears...but nah, just avoid it.
Saturday, August 29, 2009
NFL 2009 Preview - NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
Last Year:11-5, Wild Card.
This is a rare case where I think the O-line will be fine, but the rest of the offense causes implosion. Michael Turner led the league in carries last year, and that's probably not a good thing. The Falcons plan on grinding with him again, and he'll surely wear down, be less effective, and probably get hurt. And if Turner gets hurt, the running game is really in trouble. Jerious Norwood is the immediate backup, and while he has ridiculous speed, he's probably not capable of handing a full load.
QB Matt Ryan had a great rookie season, but sophomore slumps are usually attributed to defenses being more "prepared," and with a weaker run game, Ryan probably won't be able to handle it. This will have a ripple effect on his weapons. Roddy White has become a very good receiver but probably won't get the numbers he got last year. Michael Jenkins isn't as talented and will likely suffer more than Roddy. You have to feel sorry for new Falcon TE Tony Gonzalez, if Ryan and Turner struggle as I expect. Ring or not, he's had an amazing career.
The Falcons front 7 was mostly mediocre last year except for John Abraham's pass rush. Brooking and Boley are being replaced by Mike Peterson and Coy Wire, small improvements. The secondary was awful last year and lost their 2 best members: Foxworth and Milloy. Good thing it's hard for the secondary to be much worse.
If the offense collapses like I expect, and the defense stays just as bad, this is going to be a terrible team.
2009 Projected Record: 5-11
Carolina Panthers
Last Year:12-4, NFC South Champs
You know what you're getting from Jake Delhomme at this point. Decent most games, but terrible in a few. Unfortunately for Carolina, "decent Jake" never saw the field in the playoffs. The Panthers rode their running game to the playoffs last year. DeAngelo Williams broke out as a bona-fide stud. They also featured Jonathan Stewart, another talented runner who has trouble staying healthy. While it will be hard for the running game to be so excellent in 2009, there shouldn't be a huge dropoff. Jake Delhomme's primary receivers are showing growing old with him. Steve Smith is 30, but he's still one of the most dangerous and underrated players in the game. Muhsin Muhammad is 36 and is just a decent possession receiver (and good blocker) at this point.
The Panthers pass-rush should be fine, keeping Peppers and drafting Everette Brown. The secondary is pretty good too, but will miss Ken Lucas. There's a huge problem here though. The Panthers were already thin at DT, and lost starter Kemoeatu for the season. This is going to cause the excellent Jonathan Beason to get blocked much more often, and could lead to the Panthers getting run all over.
Overall the defense will struggle compared to last year, which means the Panthers will have to pass more, which is not a good thing. No playoffs for Carolina.
2009 Projected Record: 7-9
New Orleans Saints
Last Year:8-8
Sean Payton has built a great system around Drew Brees. That's not to suggest Brees isn't a great QB, but Payton is maximizing his talents. The talent around him doesn't hurt, either. Injuries last year kept Marques Colston off the field or ineffective for most of the season, a return to full health will be a huge boost. Lance Moore emerged as another solid option in the Saints short-pass attack, and they hope Jeremy Shockey will live up to his Giants days as well. Pierre Thomas looks like a decent replacement for Deuce. Reggie Bush has been a bust as a runner so far, but he's been great as a receiver out of the backfield. I think he can live up to his talent (although not his draft pick) this year if he just stays healthy.
On the other side of the ball, things aren't so good. Gregg Williams is a good defensive mind, but all he has to work with is Vilma and possibly Ellis. They signed Darren Sharper many years too late.
Overall, the defense can't get a ton worse, but it can't get better until they add better players. But the offense could be even better with a healthy Bush and Colston.
2009 Projected Record: 9-7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last Year:9-7
Ahh, the Bucs. They're picked by most to finish last in the NFC South, but in past years, this has been a good thing. I'm going to do the Bucs projection "backwards" and try to prove that the consensus has this team backwards.
The defense is making a drastic switch in leadership from "Tampa 2" to Jim Bates' schemes. It seems like this should be an obvious "transition year" for the defense, but I think you're going to see the good qualities of tampa-2 personnel mixed with good ideas from Jim Bates (who, granted, did fail completely in Denver). Ronde Barber has lost a step, but he's a physical corner who won't be terrible at bump & run. The Bucs have two other very promising corners in Aqib Talib and Elbert Mack. At safety they'll have a solid rotation of Will Allen, Tanard Jackson, and Sabby Piscitelli, at least after Tanard's 4 game suspension. Until then, Jermaine Phillips will play safety (he might eventually be moved to LB).
Speaking of linebacker, Ruud is a stud in the middle, and the team replaced Cato June with Angelo Crowell. Geno Hayes will hold down the other OLB position, at least for the first 4 games. Ryan Sims and Roy Miller fit Bates's scheme perfectly and Hovan adds depth. The Bucs are set on the outside with Gaines Adams and Jimmy Wilkerson. For all they lost (Derrick Brooks, Cato June, Kevin Carter, Jovan Haye, Philip Buchannon) the Bucs have no glaring holes on defenses, and still have quite a few playmakers.
The offense is another reason the Bucs are expected to collapse, but it's not like they were great last year. Antonio Bryant was great though, and he's still around. Talent's never been a question with Bryant, it was injuries and off-the-field events. Whoever the QB is, he'll be the go-to guy. Michael Clayton is a good blocking receiver but probably shouldn't be starting. The team added Kellen Winslow II who, like Bryant, is a great talent when avoiding health-related and off-the-field issues.
In the backfield, the Bucs have the potential for a very strong 3-back system. Earnest Graham is a bowling ball inside runner and Derrick Ward was the quintessential outside runner for the Giants last year. Carnell Williams is a wild card, he's a talented runner but it's hard to expect anything after the terrible injuries he's had. Jeff Jagodzinski is implementing zone-blocking, which fits the O-line well. Then there's the QB situation. Byron Leftwich was named the starter but Josh Freeman might take over at some point. Leftwich was obviously pressing in a recent preseason game, but is probably the best choice for now. Whoever it is will enjoy decent weapons and average pass protection.
2009 Projected Record: 9-7, NFC South champs
Current Division Future Odds:
(Disclaimer: I don't bet futures or suggest you tie up money for that long)
Atlanta Falcons +225
Carolina Panthers +225
New Orleans Saints +165
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +625
Put 100 turnips on the Bucs!
Last Year:11-5, Wild Card.
This is a rare case where I think the O-line will be fine, but the rest of the offense causes implosion. Michael Turner led the league in carries last year, and that's probably not a good thing. The Falcons plan on grinding with him again, and he'll surely wear down, be less effective, and probably get hurt. And if Turner gets hurt, the running game is really in trouble. Jerious Norwood is the immediate backup, and while he has ridiculous speed, he's probably not capable of handing a full load.
QB Matt Ryan had a great rookie season, but sophomore slumps are usually attributed to defenses being more "prepared," and with a weaker run game, Ryan probably won't be able to handle it. This will have a ripple effect on his weapons. Roddy White has become a very good receiver but probably won't get the numbers he got last year. Michael Jenkins isn't as talented and will likely suffer more than Roddy. You have to feel sorry for new Falcon TE Tony Gonzalez, if Ryan and Turner struggle as I expect. Ring or not, he's had an amazing career.
The Falcons front 7 was mostly mediocre last year except for John Abraham's pass rush. Brooking and Boley are being replaced by Mike Peterson and Coy Wire, small improvements. The secondary was awful last year and lost their 2 best members: Foxworth and Milloy. Good thing it's hard for the secondary to be much worse.
If the offense collapses like I expect, and the defense stays just as bad, this is going to be a terrible team.
2009 Projected Record: 5-11
Carolina Panthers
Last Year:12-4, NFC South Champs
You know what you're getting from Jake Delhomme at this point. Decent most games, but terrible in a few. Unfortunately for Carolina, "decent Jake" never saw the field in the playoffs. The Panthers rode their running game to the playoffs last year. DeAngelo Williams broke out as a bona-fide stud. They also featured Jonathan Stewart, another talented runner who has trouble staying healthy. While it will be hard for the running game to be so excellent in 2009, there shouldn't be a huge dropoff. Jake Delhomme's primary receivers are showing growing old with him. Steve Smith is 30, but he's still one of the most dangerous and underrated players in the game. Muhsin Muhammad is 36 and is just a decent possession receiver (and good blocker) at this point.
The Panthers pass-rush should be fine, keeping Peppers and drafting Everette Brown. The secondary is pretty good too, but will miss Ken Lucas. There's a huge problem here though. The Panthers were already thin at DT, and lost starter Kemoeatu for the season. This is going to cause the excellent Jonathan Beason to get blocked much more often, and could lead to the Panthers getting run all over.
Overall the defense will struggle compared to last year, which means the Panthers will have to pass more, which is not a good thing. No playoffs for Carolina.
2009 Projected Record: 7-9
New Orleans Saints
Last Year:8-8
Sean Payton has built a great system around Drew Brees. That's not to suggest Brees isn't a great QB, but Payton is maximizing his talents. The talent around him doesn't hurt, either. Injuries last year kept Marques Colston off the field or ineffective for most of the season, a return to full health will be a huge boost. Lance Moore emerged as another solid option in the Saints short-pass attack, and they hope Jeremy Shockey will live up to his Giants days as well. Pierre Thomas looks like a decent replacement for Deuce. Reggie Bush has been a bust as a runner so far, but he's been great as a receiver out of the backfield. I think he can live up to his talent (although not his draft pick) this year if he just stays healthy.
On the other side of the ball, things aren't so good. Gregg Williams is a good defensive mind, but all he has to work with is Vilma and possibly Ellis. They signed Darren Sharper many years too late.
Overall, the defense can't get a ton worse, but it can't get better until they add better players. But the offense could be even better with a healthy Bush and Colston.
2009 Projected Record: 9-7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last Year:9-7
Ahh, the Bucs. They're picked by most to finish last in the NFC South, but in past years, this has been a good thing. I'm going to do the Bucs projection "backwards" and try to prove that the consensus has this team backwards.
The defense is making a drastic switch in leadership from "Tampa 2" to Jim Bates' schemes. It seems like this should be an obvious "transition year" for the defense, but I think you're going to see the good qualities of tampa-2 personnel mixed with good ideas from Jim Bates (who, granted, did fail completely in Denver). Ronde Barber has lost a step, but he's a physical corner who won't be terrible at bump & run. The Bucs have two other very promising corners in Aqib Talib and Elbert Mack. At safety they'll have a solid rotation of Will Allen, Tanard Jackson, and Sabby Piscitelli, at least after Tanard's 4 game suspension. Until then, Jermaine Phillips will play safety (he might eventually be moved to LB).
Speaking of linebacker, Ruud is a stud in the middle, and the team replaced Cato June with Angelo Crowell. Geno Hayes will hold down the other OLB position, at least for the first 4 games. Ryan Sims and Roy Miller fit Bates's scheme perfectly and Hovan adds depth. The Bucs are set on the outside with Gaines Adams and Jimmy Wilkerson. For all they lost (Derrick Brooks, Cato June, Kevin Carter, Jovan Haye, Philip Buchannon) the Bucs have no glaring holes on defenses, and still have quite a few playmakers.
The offense is another reason the Bucs are expected to collapse, but it's not like they were great last year. Antonio Bryant was great though, and he's still around. Talent's never been a question with Bryant, it was injuries and off-the-field events. Whoever the QB is, he'll be the go-to guy. Michael Clayton is a good blocking receiver but probably shouldn't be starting. The team added Kellen Winslow II who, like Bryant, is a great talent when avoiding health-related and off-the-field issues.
In the backfield, the Bucs have the potential for a very strong 3-back system. Earnest Graham is a bowling ball inside runner and Derrick Ward was the quintessential outside runner for the Giants last year. Carnell Williams is a wild card, he's a talented runner but it's hard to expect anything after the terrible injuries he's had. Jeff Jagodzinski is implementing zone-blocking, which fits the O-line well. Then there's the QB situation. Byron Leftwich was named the starter but Josh Freeman might take over at some point. Leftwich was obviously pressing in a recent preseason game, but is probably the best choice for now. Whoever it is will enjoy decent weapons and average pass protection.
2009 Projected Record: 9-7, NFC South champs
Current Division Future Odds:
(Disclaimer: I don't bet futures or suggest you tie up money for that long)
Atlanta Falcons +225
Carolina Panthers +225
New Orleans Saints +165
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +625
Put 100 turnips on the Bucs!
NFL 2009 Previews - NFC West
San Francisco 49ers
Last Year:7-9 (5-3 with Hill @qb)
Shaun Hill might be an above average QB. He's put up average numbers in limited playing time, despite bad pass protection and a weak receiving corps. Singletary has finally made the easy decision to start him over mega-bust Alex Smith
Frank Gore is a feature back who's put up average ypc's the past couple years. He should have a studly year with Hill at the helm if he stays healthy. The Niners drafted consistent inside runner Glen Coffee to replace Deshaun Foster (the antithesis of consistency) as Gore's backup.
First round pick Michael Crabtree is unsigned and probably won't help much this year either way. Josh Morgan is an exciting speedster who should emerge as Hill's #1 playmaker this season. Isaac Bruce is over the hill, Arnaz Battle is a weak possession receiver, and Vernon Davis has even more hype around him this year, hype he'll once again fail to validate.
The defense is switching to full-time 3-4, but most of the players on the front 7 are the same. Having watched Justin Smith a long time in Cincy, I have to wonder whether he's strong enough to be a 3-4 end. Hopefully Manny Lawson will be used a lot more, he and Smith can combine to provide a lethal pass rush. At corner, the 49ers replaced Harris with Bly, and have just as many question marks. The secondary is the weakness of this defense.
SF's defense was pretty average last year, and under Hill, the offense was too. I'll say .500.
2009 Projected Record: 8-8
Arizona Cardinals
Last Year:9-7, lost in Super Bowl.
Kurt Warner's flaw has always been protecting the football under pressure, and last year Arizona did a good job to protect him. Warner's two best qualities have always been timing (quick release) and accuracy. Mike Martz (in the past) and Todd Haley (last year) built offenses that depend on these qualities, and it's no coincidence this is when Kurt has his best years. There's a lot of potential for Warner to fail this year. He's 38, Todd Haley is gone, and the line might not stay healthy all season again. His backup, Matt Leinart, has the talent to succeed in the right system, but he might have to prove that with another team in the future.
Tim Hightower was woefully bad last year. He'll improve a little and still be bad. Beanie Wells replaces Edge. He might have some upside, but he's being set up to fail behind this line.
Larry Fitzgerald is among the league's best, though last year will be tough to repeat. Contract dispute notwithstanding, Anquan Boldin is a risk. He plays an extremely physical game, which not only means he'll miss a few games each year, but also that he might peak early (he's 29). Steve Breaston emerged as a solid speed-WR3, and picked up 1000 yards on the way. I wouldn't ask him for more, though.
The secondary should improve: The Cardinals plucked Bryant McFadden, who will provide a nice improvement over Hood against the pass, and a huge bonus in run support. Rodgers-Cromartie is very talented and should shake off his rookie inconsistencies to have a breakout year. Adrian Wilson continues to be one of the best players in the game, and Rolle should get more comfortable with his role as Free Safety. The front 7 players are mostly unchanged, but the scheme will change under their new defensive coordinator Bill Davis. He replaces Pendergast, whose main scheme seemed to be jumping the snap count (See: wild card game vs. Atlanta), so I don't see a negative impact here either. The defense looked terrible towards the end of the year, when they were coasting to an NFC West title, so even performing at the same level, the numbers should improve.
The offensive collapse should be balanced out by an improved defense. But where does that leave them? This team only outscored their opponents by 1 point last year, but they stopped trying in December. Then they had a great playoff run, only to lose in the Super Bowl (which seems to trigger a curse lately). The curse might not apply this year in such a weak division.
2009 Projected Record: 8-8, NFC West Champs
Seattle Seahawks
Last Year:4-12
I'm not sure what to expect of Matt Hasselbeck at this point in his career. He has back issues and plays with mediocre pass protection, but was a pro-bowler just two years ago. With his age though, one thing I don't expect is for him to just bounce back to pro-bowl form. It seemed like the Seahawks also lost a WR every week to injury.
This year they've added TJ Houshmandzadeh, who was productive as a "go-to outlet receiver" last year in Cincinnati's pathetic offense. At 32 years old though, I think that's about all TJ is capable of being anymore: an outlet/possession receiver. Nate Burleson and Deion Branch are coming back from injury. Branch has never been able to stay healthy, Burleson has a better chance at stretching the field opposite TJ. John Carlson was a dependable option this year, but might not be needed as much as a receiver with everyone healthy again, especially considering he could stay in and help the pass protection.
The ground attack should improve, however, as they're switching to a zone-blocking scheme that should fit Julius Jones perfectly. Jones could have a big yardage season, and with the release of goal-line specialist TJ Duckett, he may find the end zone more as well.
On defense, the 'Hawks lost Bernard and Peterson and replaced them with Redding and #4 overall Aaron Curry. That may all come out in the wash, but one move that should definitely help is adding Ken Lucas at CB. More importantly, they hope to have a healthy Kerney.
This team will bounce back, but not all the way. Hasselbeck and the O-line just aren't what they were 2 years ago. Neither is the defense. Mediocrity.
2009 Projected Record: 7-9
St. Louis Rams
Last Year:2-14
No QB is going to enjoy much success behind a terrible O-line, but Marc Bulger in particular can't handle it. His WR corps may have declined some, but being under pressure was the real key to Marc's failure. This year he should have decent protection, since the Rams focused both their draft and free agency periods on improving the O-line.
The new question mark is the receivers. Donnie Avery is just in his second year, but down the stretch last year he emerged as a big playmaker threat. He's dinged up right now, but if he takes care of his injury he's in line to have a breakout season. I also like the potential of Laurent Robinson and Keenan Burton. These guys are question marks because they're young, not because they're untalented. I'm optimistic about Avery and Burton in particular. Randy McMichael returns from injury and should provide a nice safety valve for Bulger.
The running game is still on shaky ground. Once again, they're depending on Steven Jackson to carry the load for a full season, but for 2 years in a row he hasn't been able to do it. Jackson is very talented and you can ask him to do a lot of things, but being a 300+ carry back shouldn't be one of them.
Defensively, there are a lot of question marks at corner and on the front 7, so expecting this defense to be above average seems silly. But there is a lot of good news. Spagunolo is in as head coach, and he strikes me as a much more brilliant defensive mind than Jim Haslett. The new scheme plus the development of young players Long and Carricker should result in some improvement over a terrible 2008.
This team was AWFUL last year, possibly even worse than the winless Lions. And while I expect sweeping improvement, I can't predict a worst-to-first type of season like we saw in Miami last year.
2009 Projected Record: 6-10
Current Division Future Odds:
(Disclaimer: I don't bet futures or suggest you tie up money for that long)
Arizona Cardinals +145
Seattle Seahawks +165
San Francisco 49ers +245
St Louis Rams +1015
Don't risk any turnips on these odds.
Last Year:7-9 (5-3 with Hill @qb)
Shaun Hill might be an above average QB. He's put up average numbers in limited playing time, despite bad pass protection and a weak receiving corps. Singletary has finally made the easy decision to start him over mega-bust Alex Smith
Frank Gore is a feature back who's put up average ypc's the past couple years. He should have a studly year with Hill at the helm if he stays healthy. The Niners drafted consistent inside runner Glen Coffee to replace Deshaun Foster (the antithesis of consistency) as Gore's backup.
First round pick Michael Crabtree is unsigned and probably won't help much this year either way. Josh Morgan is an exciting speedster who should emerge as Hill's #1 playmaker this season. Isaac Bruce is over the hill, Arnaz Battle is a weak possession receiver, and Vernon Davis has even more hype around him this year, hype he'll once again fail to validate.
The defense is switching to full-time 3-4, but most of the players on the front 7 are the same. Having watched Justin Smith a long time in Cincy, I have to wonder whether he's strong enough to be a 3-4 end. Hopefully Manny Lawson will be used a lot more, he and Smith can combine to provide a lethal pass rush. At corner, the 49ers replaced Harris with Bly, and have just as many question marks. The secondary is the weakness of this defense.
SF's defense was pretty average last year, and under Hill, the offense was too. I'll say .500.
2009 Projected Record: 8-8
Arizona Cardinals
Last Year:9-7, lost in Super Bowl.
Kurt Warner's flaw has always been protecting the football under pressure, and last year Arizona did a good job to protect him. Warner's two best qualities have always been timing (quick release) and accuracy. Mike Martz (in the past) and Todd Haley (last year) built offenses that depend on these qualities, and it's no coincidence this is when Kurt has his best years. There's a lot of potential for Warner to fail this year. He's 38, Todd Haley is gone, and the line might not stay healthy all season again. His backup, Matt Leinart, has the talent to succeed in the right system, but he might have to prove that with another team in the future.
Tim Hightower was woefully bad last year. He'll improve a little and still be bad. Beanie Wells replaces Edge. He might have some upside, but he's being set up to fail behind this line.
Larry Fitzgerald is among the league's best, though last year will be tough to repeat. Contract dispute notwithstanding, Anquan Boldin is a risk. He plays an extremely physical game, which not only means he'll miss a few games each year, but also that he might peak early (he's 29). Steve Breaston emerged as a solid speed-WR3, and picked up 1000 yards on the way. I wouldn't ask him for more, though.
The secondary should improve: The Cardinals plucked Bryant McFadden, who will provide a nice improvement over Hood against the pass, and a huge bonus in run support. Rodgers-Cromartie is very talented and should shake off his rookie inconsistencies to have a breakout year. Adrian Wilson continues to be one of the best players in the game, and Rolle should get more comfortable with his role as Free Safety. The front 7 players are mostly unchanged, but the scheme will change under their new defensive coordinator Bill Davis. He replaces Pendergast, whose main scheme seemed to be jumping the snap count (See: wild card game vs. Atlanta), so I don't see a negative impact here either. The defense looked terrible towards the end of the year, when they were coasting to an NFC West title, so even performing at the same level, the numbers should improve.
The offensive collapse should be balanced out by an improved defense. But where does that leave them? This team only outscored their opponents by 1 point last year, but they stopped trying in December. Then they had a great playoff run, only to lose in the Super Bowl (which seems to trigger a curse lately). The curse might not apply this year in such a weak division.
2009 Projected Record: 8-8, NFC West Champs
Seattle Seahawks
Last Year:4-12
I'm not sure what to expect of Matt Hasselbeck at this point in his career. He has back issues and plays with mediocre pass protection, but was a pro-bowler just two years ago. With his age though, one thing I don't expect is for him to just bounce back to pro-bowl form. It seemed like the Seahawks also lost a WR every week to injury.
This year they've added TJ Houshmandzadeh, who was productive as a "go-to outlet receiver" last year in Cincinnati's pathetic offense. At 32 years old though, I think that's about all TJ is capable of being anymore: an outlet/possession receiver. Nate Burleson and Deion Branch are coming back from injury. Branch has never been able to stay healthy, Burleson has a better chance at stretching the field opposite TJ. John Carlson was a dependable option this year, but might not be needed as much as a receiver with everyone healthy again, especially considering he could stay in and help the pass protection.
The ground attack should improve, however, as they're switching to a zone-blocking scheme that should fit Julius Jones perfectly. Jones could have a big yardage season, and with the release of goal-line specialist TJ Duckett, he may find the end zone more as well.
On defense, the 'Hawks lost Bernard and Peterson and replaced them with Redding and #4 overall Aaron Curry. That may all come out in the wash, but one move that should definitely help is adding Ken Lucas at CB. More importantly, they hope to have a healthy Kerney.
This team will bounce back, but not all the way. Hasselbeck and the O-line just aren't what they were 2 years ago. Neither is the defense. Mediocrity.
2009 Projected Record: 7-9
St. Louis Rams
Last Year:2-14
No QB is going to enjoy much success behind a terrible O-line, but Marc Bulger in particular can't handle it. His WR corps may have declined some, but being under pressure was the real key to Marc's failure. This year he should have decent protection, since the Rams focused both their draft and free agency periods on improving the O-line.
The new question mark is the receivers. Donnie Avery is just in his second year, but down the stretch last year he emerged as a big playmaker threat. He's dinged up right now, but if he takes care of his injury he's in line to have a breakout season. I also like the potential of Laurent Robinson and Keenan Burton. These guys are question marks because they're young, not because they're untalented. I'm optimistic about Avery and Burton in particular. Randy McMichael returns from injury and should provide a nice safety valve for Bulger.
The running game is still on shaky ground. Once again, they're depending on Steven Jackson to carry the load for a full season, but for 2 years in a row he hasn't been able to do it. Jackson is very talented and you can ask him to do a lot of things, but being a 300+ carry back shouldn't be one of them.
Defensively, there are a lot of question marks at corner and on the front 7, so expecting this defense to be above average seems silly. But there is a lot of good news. Spagunolo is in as head coach, and he strikes me as a much more brilliant defensive mind than Jim Haslett. The new scheme plus the development of young players Long and Carricker should result in some improvement over a terrible 2008.
This team was AWFUL last year, possibly even worse than the winless Lions. And while I expect sweeping improvement, I can't predict a worst-to-first type of season like we saw in Miami last year.
2009 Projected Record: 6-10
Current Division Future Odds:
(Disclaimer: I don't bet futures or suggest you tie up money for that long)
Arizona Cardinals +145
Seattle Seahawks +165
San Francisco 49ers +245
St Louis Rams +1015
Don't risk any turnips on these odds.
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